Sunday, December 26, 2010

PC World's Ten Tech Predictions for 2011

It's a Sunday morning, the day after Christmas, so why not make a quickie post?  PC World's January 2011 issue includes Ten Tech Predictions to Take to the Bank.  Let's take a quick look.  (I'm going to paraphrase the actual predictions for brevity.)

Lots of folks will be using their smartphones to pay for stuff at the register.  Without having to put a number on it, I can see this as being likely.  Considering that I don't have a smartphone (and my wife just asked me about 30 minutes ago whether I was going to get one) I won't be the one making these purchases.  For the record, the first time I recall seeing this in fiction was the 80s TV show Max Headroom.

iPads will rule the tablets.  Don't they already?

3D TV will take off.  I would like it if HD TV took off (in my house).  But I just don't get the attraction of wearing those 3D glasses to watch The View.  I consider this unlikely.

Disk drives will move from traditional rotating platters to flash.  I can see this on the laptop side of things where physical size and energy use are driving factors.  But I don't see it happening on the desktop just yet.

Compact interchangeable lens cameras will replace DLSRs.  I don't even know what this means.  Regardless, I will continue to cut off people's heads in my snapshots.

All e-Readers will be color by the end of the year.  Doubtful.  Novels have always been black and white so why would a strict e-reader need color, unless they're trying to be more than just an e-reader and compete with the iPad which they already predicted was a losing proposition.  Plus, manufacturers are going to want to keep that low price point.  The real question is when Amazon will start giving away Kindles with your first e-book purchase.

Conventional feature phones (i.e. the midrange) will fade away leaving only basic phones and smartphones.  I have no personal basis for judging this prediction but I tend to agree.

Cloud-based OS will start to attract the average home user.  Agree but with a caveat.  Remote storage of data is ripe for pitfalls that will likely confuse and then anger the average home user.

IPv6 adoption will accelerate.  No brainer.  Agreed.  Can't run out of IP addresses.

Facebook and Google will be the tech rivalry to watch.  The only question is which one can be characterized as Godzilla and which one is Mothra.

No comments: